Author's note: I began writing this piece on the drought at Lily Pond prior to hurricane Delta coming ashore in Louisiana just six weeks after hurricane Laura. Also in this time, 60 Minutes aired the cited piece on Climate Science.
I love listening carefully to the long timers as they carry with them observations that they have compiled over the decades. On many topics they can be in my estimation, the citizen scientists and historians that fill in the gaps of reports made by impartial professionals. Important gaps like how people felt, what they as individuals personally experienced within the context of the broader subject. For me, the long timers bring science to the kitchen table.
What's it like after a major hurricane? It's like the constant smell of pine sap and grilled chicken. It's chainsaws, blue tarps, radio silence and camping indoors for more than a month without water and electric. Most importantly, it's like perfect strangers from all over the country behaving as if they have been your backyard neighbors for twenty years. But also, it's like all the trees are broken matchsticks, the National Guard keeping you from your home while at the same time protecting it. It's friends suddenly without houses and pets roaming with no place to go. It's islands sliced in half by the ocean and shrimp boats stacked up like kids toys in the corner. It's two hours to travel ten minutes through unrecognizable neighborhoods. It's 31 years of panic attacks every time I hear that tone of voice from a mayor, meteorologist or reporter come across the airwaves.
So it was that my ears perked up when my friend mentioned, "My dad always said that it takes one foot of snow to make up for an inch of rain." Cheryl then followed with, "I think we are ten inches low on rain this year". Translation? We would need ten foot of snow to get back on track and out of this drought. I don't have the need to fact check Cheryl or Cheryl's dad. He knew during his lifetime what he had experienced. For my part, I have seen it rain hard after drought conditions and still not see the stream in my neighborhood start to flow again. I was around during Irene when southern VT communities were devastated by flooding; while we here in Vernon barely experienced a run of the mill storm. It's hard to make sense of that. Even so, that doesn't mean that the aftermath had no impact on Vernon residents.
Many residents have been keeping an eye on Lily pond. Will Lily pond, which has evaporated to little more than a mud flat this summer, recover in time for whatever next summer brings? The Old Farmers Almanac predicts that, "Snow lovers should be very excited."* I would love to believe that the Almanac is at least as accurate as the wooly bear caterpillar; and here's the thing, I believe in science (I really do); but science is hard to understand. For example, I searched NOAA's online winter forecast** and I couldn't even find mention of Vermont, just a bunch of maps with one showing "E.C' for New England. My take away for my effort is that NOAA believes that temperatures will be higher than normal this winter with New England being in the equal chances zone. E.C. means that odds of average, above average, or below average precipitation is about the same. I'm sure that all those other maps somehow come into play; but I'll be darned if I know how. Can we conclude that Lily pond has an equal chance to recover as to not?
The pond has always recovered in the past so why should this time be any different? When do the old timers run out of memories of the year the pond was dryer? What if Lily pond's drying up is the "new normal?" What if something has been changing and our pond is trying to tell us? What if there were something that we could do to tip the scales in the pond's (and the wildlife that depends on it) favor? That's a lot of questions!
My mother in law Janice, always tells us that she was born in the hurricane of 1938. The Great New England Hurricane of 82 years ago has been described as a once in a lifetime storm. This year, the news has been filled with on par extreme regional events. We have become familiar with and better at predicting and dealing with monster events and because of it, countless lives have been spared. The events are piling up however, not only directly impacting the lives in the path of the events; but also the financial stability of our nation. Death Valley experienced the highest recorded temperature on earth. L.A. reached 120 degrees. Four percent of California has burned (it was so hot that rain dried up before it hit the ground) and the southern US has been hit by twice the number of storms than in a typical season.***
Rachel Carson National Wildlife Refuge (ME), Biologists have noted that with tidal waters rising in salt marshes, Salt Marsh Sparrow's (a species of concern) nests are being flooded further endangering their chances for survival. These birds are indicators as to the health of the marshes. Why is this important? Coastal salt water marshes are defenders against storm events.**** Imagine if a hurricane like the one in 1938 comes ashore again; but this time saltwater marshes, barrier islands, and other natural defenses have been weakened do to rising sea levels and development.
In 1988 NASA scientists James Hansen's paper on carbon and climate, stated accurately to the year, the fire, drought, heat, and hurricane events of 2020. I remember when there was considerable debate among scientists whether or not Global Warming / Climate Change was happening and if human activities were causing it. In 2020 scientists have reached a consensus on Climate Change, it's real, it's getting late and there is still time to reverse it. Geophysicist Michael Mann in a 60 Minutes interview was asked if this is the new normal, he replied, "New normal is the best case scenario..."*** He also explained that the planet naturally should have cooled over the last half century; but has instead increased a little less than two degrees Fahrenheit. This interview is a must watch as it explains to regular people like you and me, the science in easy to understand language.
Michael Mann confirms that "Warming can be stopped. Oceans and forests would begin to absorb excess carbon in a matter of years...It becomes too late if you get to the point that you cannot stop the ice sheet disintegration" ***
I believe in paying close attention to scientists and to the long timers, one tells us what is happening and the other puts it in a context of human experience.-Norma Manning
Resources:
* The Old Farmer's Almanac, Winter of 2021
** NOAA'S 2020-2021 Winter Forecast
*** The Climate Science Behind This Year's Wildfires and Powerful Storms, 60 Minutes
**** Live From the Marsh With Salt Marsh Sparrow, Rachel Carson National Wildlife Refuge
A barefoot print in Lily Pond
Overview looking south
Very interesting, Norma. The pictures say it all. We need rain, a nice steady rain.
ReplyDeleteRain, rain, please DON'T GO AWAY! Come and stay for several days🙂
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