A new Symbol of Vernon the Florida Alligator

The Hermit Thrush has been an official symbol of Vermont since 1941 when naturalists prevailed over legislators who were divided between the crow and blue jay. Naturalists versus politicians, now there is an argument that we can all relate to during election season. While I like the intelligent glossy black crow and alarmist blue jay, the hermit thrush with its strong defense of "home" seems to have been a fine choice for these Green Mountains. Stable in population, these seasonal birds adapt well to a variety of forested lands and woodland edges, nesting low to the ground near sources of water. All of this seems promising for a novice like myself to cross paths with Hermit Thrush; and yet this is the first one that I have seen up close in my many in years of hiking the woods and swamps of Vernon.

Imagine my pause as I stepped onto our deck and spied the brown bird lying beneath our window. Perhaps a Walmart sparrow (European House sparrow) should have fist come to mind; but I wondered if I was looking at brown oak leaves blown over from Jim's collection. I suppose it must have been denial at first glance. What after all, are the chances that such a bird would still be hanging around in Vernon on Halloween day, even if it is just shy of eighty degrees out? 

I can't be sure of why this little bird died; and while I do have my suspicions, I think its important to note that: in addition to natural causes like predation and disease,  building collisions kill more than a billion birds in the U.S. each year.-American Bird Conservancy and outdoor cats kill around 2.4 billion birds- Cats indoors. Habitat loss, climate change, human wildlife conflict and environmental toxins are also contributors to bird mortality. 

Survival by Degrees is an interactive publication by the Audubon Society where readers can explore how climate change will affect the vulnerability of  birds by state as well as Mexico and Canada. This article lists Vermont as having 42 highly vulnerable species, 52 moderately vulnerable, 29 with low vulnerability and 45 stable species. Select your favorite bird and the site takes you to specific information on it. While I should feel a certain measure of comfort that the scrappy adaptive Hermit thrush rates in the least concern category, it doesn't escape my attention that he was on the verge of overstaying his seasonal residency while Vernon achieved record temperatures for October.  

 

A neighbor stopped to chat with me on my walk this afternoon and while we caught up, Esther kept nosing at her hand which held another adaptive species and our state flower, the VT red clover. Peak blooming in VT is in May and June with late September being on the outer edge of its blooming season.

Lorien's find got me to thinking about the purple lilac that Wayne's grandmother divided from her own heritage bush in 1991. We planted it at our first home in Hinsdale and then brought a piece of it to Vernon when we moved here. This spring it bloomed beautifully before losing all of its leaves by August. In late September its leaves started to bud out again. In October, we have had frosts, our first snow flurries, temperatures in the upper 70s and a blooming lilac. 

The trees are mostly bare, with the exception of a sugar maple out back. Red fruit adorns our viburnums, hollies and crabapple; but our hollies are also sporadically blooming along with blackberries, rudbeckia and sedum This just seems odd, but its not the first time in recent years that the seasons seem a bit catawampus.

Unlike more generalist species such as the hermit thrush and red clover, our state tree the sugar maple is a specialist . With Vernon being the south eastern most town in Vermont and "Vermont being among the fastest warming states" and with syrup production being frost driven, Vernon's maple syrup revenue is in jeopardy. Audubon Vermont has published a comprehensive easy to understand explanation of the impact of Climate Change on maples and the maple syrup industry The End Of Maple? 

November 1st with temperatures in the 70s

Today as Wayne and I were traveling through Westminster, we decided to visit the wetlands behind Allen Brothers. Typically when we stop at Allen Brothers, it is to browse their nursery stock searching for bargains on native plants; but the flowers, shrubs and trees are long since depleted in September. 

 Here in the pond on the very outside of their traditional start of brumation, we found another Vermont symbol, the Painted turtle. If turtles basking on logs in November isn't weird enough, a large frog hopped across the dirt road traveling between ponds while a dragonfly rested on my arm. 

In 2019, Iowa State University published research by Biologist Nicole Valenzuela. The article, Climate change could devastate painted Turtles,  notes that,  "Painted turtles undergo temperature -dependent sex determination while developing inside the egg. Eggs exposed to warmer temperatures tend to produce females, while cooler temperatures tend to produce males.

The publication further explains that with wider temperature swings, turtles and other amphibians may experience population collapse due to unbalanced female to male ratios.

November 2nd, with high temperatures in the 50 and lows in the 20s

In addition to my regular Vernon Conservation Commission meetings, I have been attending a lot of other meetings: CT River Conservancy meetings on dam relicensing, Vernon Hazard Mitigation planning, Vermont Environmental law implementation planning for Act 59, Basin 12 / Deerfield Watershed clean water planning, and most recently Reconnecting the Green Mountains: A multi-pronged approach for enabling wildlife movement hosted by VT Conservation Planner Jens Hilke and Biologist for the Vermont Agency of Transportation Jessie Johnson.

With each meeting I attended, the notion kept coming back to me that each of these projects are seemingly operating in isolation  and yet they were assuredly interconnected, the same in a sense as gazing at a brown object on my deck, my brain trying to make sense of it, the mystery of what I am looking at, what brings it to my backyard, how it fits into what I experience and know and then contemplating how it is I was going to interact with it. Is it any wonder I don't seep soundly at night?

I'm not super human or anything, just an overly curious well meaning volunteer who drifts off at meetings like the rest of you. My notes from Hilke and Johnson's meeting reads something like this: connected, connectivity, Bio Finder, movement west to east & south to north, connectivity scale, wildlife movement, climate change, NE pinch point, barrier effect, gene flow restriction, NRI, expand to connect, land use planning, transportation component...

As you can see, I take very detailed self explanatory notes; but my big takeaway is the moving map of points of light showing wildlife migration as they sweep across North America in a wide swath from west and south. These points of light and bands are growing more narrow and become more concentrated as they squeeze through NE. Vermont funnels migratory animals up into Canada where they are greeted with predominantly agricultural treeless lands. 

A fisherman fishes for alligator at Lily pond in Vernon on a warm day in November.

And here my friends is the other shoe you have been so patiently waiting to hear drop.  Climate change with it's rising temperatures is causing wildlife's traditional ranges to expand northerly at a rate of one mile per year. This means that long time Vernon Vermonters who traditionally scorn everything Massachusetts, are already living in a Massachusetts climate. Invasive species that out compete and damage our native wildlife are surviving our warmer winters and our  native wildlife vulnerable to climate change must move northerly if they are going to survive. In their way are, fragmented wetlands, fragmented forestlands, man's infrastructure, ever decreasing recourses and dwindling genetic diversity.  

I think my mother summed it up best when she asked me, "How are alligators going to get to Vermont?" -Norma Manning 

What's Steinbeck Got To Do With It?

I thought that I fell in love with John Steinbeck in high school and I felt all the more sophisticated for it. I began collecting books in elementary school but hadn't yet realized that is what I was doing: rocks, dirt from every state, absolutely everything animals and yes definitely books. Before Steinbeck, I read about wildlife, a certain country veterinarian, a redhaired girl named Anne, a family who lived on the prairie... but mostly I read about horses and dogs. I read adventures about horses and dogs, tragic tales about horses and dogs, children who owned exceptional horses and dogs, more importantly, I read encyclopedias about horses and dogs . Clearly with Steinbeck, I had turned a corner, even if the first novel that I ever read by him was The Red Pony.

"Nature always wins," this was the overriding statement  that I chose for an Expository Writing class assignment on  American author John Steinbeck. My professor came across as being dispirited in his written remarks on the last page of my essay by claiming that I had a, "superficial understanding of Steinbeck." Apparently it was structural injustice that John Steinbeck was writing about. Potayto - potahto, or so my nineteen year old self had reasoned. As I reflect back on all of this, I have come to recognize over my thirty nine years since, that nature isn't actually winning, Steinbeck had more to say, and a "superficial understanding" is just as valid of a place to begin learning as any. 

I often wonder, had a broader public awareness of Environmental Justice and Climate Justice existed in the early 80s, if my professor and I would have had a very different sort of exchange. It was after all, Steinbeck's symbolic use of  nature to support his theme of injustice, that drew me into the conversation.  Later on, I was exposed to storytellers like Betty Smith with A Tree Grows in Brooklyn (1943) and Jane Goodall's Reason For Hope (1999), who built upon that foundation laid down by dogs, horses and Steinbeck. 

In a day when the internet wasn't, and very few outlets were talking about injustices spurred by environmental conditions, it was already being explored by the foundations, observations and works of our storytellers. Even so, my daughter reminds me that it is time to turn yet another corner,. She believes that we have heard from those who are looking in, that it's time for us to pause our voices and to carefully listen to the voices of those who are living within structural injustices of society. I think that is wise advice given to a person who grew up blindly reciting, "and justice for all" at the start of each school day. 

John Steinbeck's The Grapes of Wrath is hardly front and center on reading lists anymore, and what could any of this have to do with Vernon VT Nature Finds? If I am to be truthful here, this essay is actually a collection of thoughts brought on by unexpectedly having to toss my book collection into a dumpster sitting in my driveway. It's the gutting of our home, the accumulation of 37 years of marriage, our kid's things along with the things handed down from our parents and grandparents all sitting in that dumpster. It's Wayne, in spite of the overflowing dumpsters, placing our recycle bins out by the road on collection day and all the while knowing that for us, all of this is only an inconvenience. We are going to recover. 

"...the most severe harms from climate change fall disproportionately upon underserved communities who are least able to prepare for, and recover from heat wave, poor air quality, flooding, and other impacts. EPA's analysis indicates that racial and ethnic minority communities are particularly vulnerable to the greatest impacts of climate change.."  Click here to read more on this EPA report

Furthermore, this essay is written for Vernon's youth in order to help them to understand that when some person or some group labels your collection of ideas as "superficial," that's just a starting point to a conversation. - Norma Manning

Conversation Starter for young and old alike:

We Are the World, Wikipedia

People of Color are on the Frontlines of the Climate Crises

My Ice Cream is Melting!

 When two Biologists spend the weekend with you at the start of a heatwave, when you don't have air conditioning, when you live in VT, spending the weekend in the house isn't an option. Strawberry picking, walking the West River Trail, ice cream, swimming, chilling at the Vernon dam, all made the list of things to do while they reset for the week ahead. We also tried the Broad Brook falls, but the parking area was already filled. 

Helen (formerly of Vernon) and Kirk spend an evening at the Vernon dam.  

It's Monday morning and our guests have gone back to the coast of ME to help conserve the Saltmarsh and Nelson Sparrow, Piping Plover and Least Tern chicks there. The 4th of July with its crowds, beach parties, loose dogs and fireworks, is a particularly disastrous time during the breeding season for these threatened and endangered species. But that's not the complete story. There is coastal development to contend with and the ever increasing higher tides flooding the salt marshes and eroding coastal nesting sites.  Warmer summers also mean warmer ocean waters. The small fish that Terns and other seabirds feed to their chicks retreat to cooler ocean depths, making the fish inaccessible. Human caused Climate Change is taking its toll on one of America's favorite tourist destinations. (see further reading)

Least Tern chick by Helen Manning

With social media and the news filled with heat index warnings for the week, I decided to follow Green Mountain Power's energy conservation recommendations and did my laundry well after I was ready for bed. 

For dramatic pause, I include this deceased mole on the West River trail.

and this deceased shrew on the same trail and day.

I understand that to those who are coping with record temperatures in the triple digits out west, it may seem somewhat unbelievable that a small town Vermonter, would concern themselves and others about doing chores after hours. But hopefully there is a method to my madness or suffering through another late night screening of Thor (who fancies himself a thunder god) while my socks were drying was a complete waste of my time.

Now to be honest, I have struggled with how to exactly untangle the reasons for why it is important for a small town Vermonter to spend the hottest time of the year doing chores in her jammies, especially when that small town Vermonter is from Vernon, home to a now retired nuclear power station. We are also home to a switch yard on the Southern Loop Connector,  and we host an operating hydroelectric station. 

It's complicated: 

There are those who are eminently qualified micro and macro examiners of this huge topic, one of whom is author and energy analyst Meredith Joan-Angwin.  I'm not claiming that I know what time of day or night that Meredith does her dishes, but I do know that she understands how we arrived at a place where the largest utility in our state is asking that it happens after midnight. 

The below screenshot was taken of the ISO New England- Real Time Maps* on 6/28/2021 at seven in the morning (before the workday starts). The maps show the System Demand to be at 16134 MW and fossil (greenhouse emitting fuels) accounting for about 67% of the grid's fuel mix.

  

"Our energy supply is 95% carbon free and more than 64% renewable." ** I'm not entirely certain of all that figures into the math at GMP, but the ISO real time map shows that at seven this morning, the NE grid was being supplied with approximately 67% carbon producing fuel. Now the process of generation, purchase contracts, auctions and RECs to name a few components, is quite complex and I encourage you to read over Green Mountain Power- Energy Mix customer friendly statements. I think that it's important to note however, that there is a discrepancy between what our electric company has contracted for and the actual percentage of any given fuel source supplying the grid at any given time. 

Under the auspice of the VT Public Service Board, GMP contracts for a certain amount of energy, from a certain source, at a certain price all of which is tiered based on actual consumption. 

There are twenty electric utilities operating in Vermont of which GMP is the largest. All of these  utilities have (as much as VT laws allow) their own energy portfolios and energy goals. All of the twenty utilities operate under a certificate of public good. Utilities within VT for the most part do not own  a significant amount generation capacity within the state***  Moreover, there are bigger powers at play (see what I did there?) in the compilation of the energy mix on the NE grid than the twenty utilities contracting for power in VT. (Eversource, that supplies Boston comes to mind.) 

With all of these fuel sources for energy generation and all of the utilities contracting for their own portfolios, how does the grid operator who keeps the grid stable, decide which sources to bring online and when to do so? I mean, GMP strongly favors climate friendly renewable energy, so shouldn't that be what is delivered to our meters? Click here to find out the answer to these questions. Please pay particular attention to the discussion on stability. This is also an area that Meredith Joan Angwin expertly addresses in her book Shorting The Grid.

A little less complicated:

It's 12:00 noon and ISO New England is at 73% carbon producing natural gas, 17% Nuclear, 7% renewables, and 2% hydro* Wayne and I have deployed our (until now) secret strategy for circulating the cooler air in our basement throughout the house.

It's not Ginny dog's first rodeo

At 3:00 and system demand is 23394. The grid is above predicted usage and there is a "power systems conditions alert". Something else has shown up on the map. In addition to < 1% coal there is now < 1% oil. The ISO has started to call up reserve sources for electricity.  

Throughout the workday, I noted that while the percentage of natural gas fluctuated between 66% and 73% percent of the fuel mix (oil reached a maximum of 2%).  I was honestly surprised when at my last check of the ISO real time maps, that the Megawatts (MW) of natural gas on the grid had actually gone up after most people left work. I also noted that at eight pm the total demand on the grid decreased by 953 MW and the amount of natural gas supplying the grid actually increased by 498.75 MW. 

 Time      NG       Demand          Demand met by NG

7:00 am, 66% of 16,134 MW = 10,648.44  MW

5:00 pm, 70% of 24,178 MW = 16,924.60  MW

8:40 pm, 75% of 23,225 MW = 17,418.75  MW

I find this entire scenario exceedingly frustrating! How am I supposed to make a case for saving Least Terns nesting in ME during a heat wave if we are actually creating more greenhouse gasses after the sun goes down? How am I, from little ole Vernon, VT supposed to create meaningful impact on the climate crisis which in turn will help the Terns? 

Natural gas emits 910 pounds of CO2 per megawatt. ****

Oil emits 2,130 pounds of CO2 per megawatt. ****

Well after much deliberation, it occurred to me, that perhaps the change I sought by performing my household chores after hours might actually be targeting a smaller percentage of the fuel mix than natural gas on the NE grid. I began to think about that "oil" category, the source that wasn't even on the fuel mix chart until 3:00 pm when predicted demand was exceeded. Greenhouse Gases Equivalencies could offer an opportunity for consumers like me.

Could this possibly be where I come in? What if I were to personally reduce my consumption in such a way as to help prevent peak demand and calling up higher carbon / ready reserve fuels? What if instead of doing chores during heat waves, I read a book, played a game, sat under a tree or went to the Vernon dam? What if everyone of us prioritized reducing our personal demand, then could we finally begin to reverse the tide? 

Time        Oil       Demand               Demand met by oil

5:00 pm,  2%    of 24,178 MW   = 483.56 MW  or 1,29982.8 pounds of CO2 emitted

I get it, I really do. If conserving electricity during record temperatures and heat waves isn't something your family can safely do, then do what you can in other areas of your life to reduce your carbon footprint. For example, driving less frequently and driving a more fuel efficient automobile is an important strategy in combatting Climate Change. Today it's the seabirds & shorebirds that are reaping the consequences of  our love affair with carbon; but it won't be too much longer before the impact of Climate Change makes its way into our daily lives here in Vernon!   -Norma Manning

Adult Least Tern by Helen Manning

Further reading:

Rachel Carson Council, Birds, Climate, Ecology

Audubon, How Climate Change is Sinking Seabirds

EPA, What Climate Change Means for Coastal Maine

Maine Climate Council, Climate Change in Maine

* ISO New England, Real-Time Maps and Charts

** Green Mountain Power, Energy Mix

*** State of VT, Department of Public Service, Energy

**** eia, How much carbon dioxide is produced per kilowatt hour of U.S electricity generation?

eia, Electric generator dispatch depends on system demand and relative cost of operation 

EPA, Greenhouse Gases Equivalencies Calculator- Calculations and References

Changing Tides

I may be known for rolling my eyes when hearing educators describe crossword puzzles, color by number, word searches, indeed any sort of puzzle, as fun work. I have always struggled with visual spatial tasks or as I describe it to those who note my thinly vailed response, "it's not my skill set." Imagine my confusion this vacation, when I realized that Wayne had gifted to me a thousand piece Audubon puzzle. It looked as though 2020 was going to end with the same sort of enthusiasm as a student faced with a double sided page of word problems. Go ahead and just close your eyes and "visualize it."

I have always subscribed to the notion of honor the gift, so when Abby and Wayne left for an errand, I began to set up my strategy for success. I had brought in the coffee table and a TV dinner table by the time they had returned. I told Wayne that I required the large folding table as well. Sorting flat edges, words, reds, blacks, oranges, greens whites, beaks, legs....It was too much for them to stand by and watch. Abby collected the border to assemble as I explained the process. Flats before color same with words I began; but Wayne was already applying his left handed, map loving, geometric logic. To make it more confusing, Abby informed me that using the picture was cheating! "Well okay then, I'm counting light pink and pale yellow as being white." Clearly I was in over my head. 

In 2020 I visited a salt marsh and attended three online presentations on salt marshes. Two were hosted by Rachel Carson National Wildlife Refuge in Wells ME and one by the Southeastern Vermont  Audubon Society. I was surprised to recognize Vernon residents in attendance at the Audubon meeting and that local Biologist Cory Ross introduced the Graduate Student presenting. Each presentation discussed the status of bird species of concern that nested in the marsh, the important role that these marshes play in cleaning polluted water, protection from storm events and flood control, how the marshes were historically impacted by agricultural use and continue to be impacted by development and climate change. It was further explained how marshes are naturally created but face increasing challenges that require intervention by Ecologists.

Salt water marsh, photo credit- Helen Manning

The programs included an opportunity to ask questions and I noticed that one particular question was asked each time. Viewers wanted to know, that since they didn't live anywhere near a salt marsh, what could they do to help? "All water flows to the ocean" seemed to be a unifying theme. It seems that our inland practices impact our rivers and streams and therefore the salt marshes' interdependent ecology with the ocean. Creating impervious surfaces increases water runoff pollution. Removing native plants and installing barriers between water and plants interferes with the natural system of absorption and water filtration. Poorly managed land delivers silt pollution to our rivers and streams, creating "dead zones" and biological imbalances. The overarching issue of climate change causing rising ocean levels is another major piece of the puzzle. This is an area where tiny states like VT are attempting to lead the way by reducing fossil fuel consumption. Like approaching any giant puzzle, there are multiple strategies required to solve it and all of them require cooperation between those defining the parameters and those working the puzzle. 

Salt water marsh, photo credit Helen Manning

Taxing rural VT's major source for winter heat and transportation to reduce consumption as you can well imagine, has sparked a good deal of "conversation." Talking about other's contributions to the problem and their need to bear the brunt of the solution seems more palatable. My mother in FL and her concern for Lake Okeechobee and the shrinking Everglades for example, is the reason that I am particular about the sugar that I buy. It seems more achievable to buy select sugar than to pay taxes on my fuel consumption. Each it seems however, is an important piece in solving the puzzle. If someone were to ask which is more important, the Everglades Snail Kite or Maine's Saltmarsh Sparrow, the answer must be, both of them.

Elevation above sea level at Everglades National Park

Yesterday our walk took us past a culvert that the town had replaced. It was replaced with the much larger culvert after heavy rains overwhelmed the previous one causing a lot of damage to nearby properties. I noticed that sometime after it was replaced, someone created a swimming hole near the outlet by constructing a small stone dam. To further complicate things, a tree fell just downstream of the dam and that too has been collecting mud and other debris. I have watched over the past couple of years, the stream erode the soil around the two dams creating a new streambed to the left of the original. Now during heavy rain events and snow melts, the stream takes two paths, one over the dams and the other around them. Why I wonder, do we now require bigger culverts than were installed in the 70s? What has changed to make it financially advantageous for our state and town to redesign and install these water pathways? How is the water that flows through them connected to restoring and protecting Maine's salt marshes?

Wayne's puzzle gift isn't just another 2020 headache to work through. As it turns out, it is a deeply meaningful segway to explaining our connectedness, our attempts at organizing what is in front of us and the value of many diverse, albeit cooperative approaches to placing each equally important piece. I have a new answer to the question of, "Why should Vermont tax fossil fuels when Connecticut consumes infinitely more than we do?" Clearly the answer to the question is Maine's salt marshes. It's also important to remember that every puzzle begins by setting the first piece-Norma Manning

New culvert in Vernon, VT

The stream found a new path around the manmade and natural dams

Resources:

Southeastern Vermont Audubon Society

Rachel Carson National Refuge 

Paying Attention to The Long Timers

Author's note: I began writing this piece on the drought at Lily Pond prior to hurricane Delta coming ashore in Louisiana just six weeks after hurricane Laura. Also in this time, 60 Minutes aired the cited piece on Climate Science. 

 I love listening carefully to the long timers as they carry with them observations that they have compiled over the decades. On many topics they can be in my estimation, the citizen scientists and historians that fill in the gaps of reports made by impartial  professionals. Important gaps like how people felt, what they as individuals personally experienced within the context of the broader subject. For me, the long timers bring science to the kitchen table. 

What's it like after a major hurricane? It's like the constant smell of pine sap and grilled chicken. It's chainsaws, blue tarps, radio silence and camping indoors for more than a month without water and electric. Most importantly, it's like perfect strangers from all over the country behaving as if they have been your backyard neighbors for twenty years. But also, it's like all the trees are broken matchsticks, the National Guard keeping you from your home while at the same time protecting it. It's friends suddenly without houses and pets roaming with no place to go. It's islands sliced in half by the ocean and shrimp boats stacked up like kids toys in the corner. It's two hours to travel ten minutes through unrecognizable neighborhoods. It's 31 years of panic attacks every time I hear that tone of voice from a mayor, meteorologist or reporter come across the airwaves. 

So it was that my ears perked up when my friend mentioned, "My dad always said that it takes one foot of snow to make up for an inch of rain." Cheryl then followed with, "I think we are ten inches low on rain this year". Translation? We would need ten foot of snow to get back on track and out of this drought. I don't have the need to fact check Cheryl or Cheryl's dad. He knew during his lifetime what he had experienced. For my part, I have seen it rain hard after drought conditions and still not see the stream in my neighborhood start to flow again.  I was around during Irene when southern VT communities were devastated by flooding; while we here in Vernon barely experienced a run of the mill storm. It's hard to make sense of that. Even so, that doesn't mean that the aftermath had no impact on Vernon residents. 

Many residents have been keeping an eye on Lily pond. Will Lily pond, which has evaporated to little more than a mud flat this summer, recover in time for whatever next summer brings? The Old Farmers Almanac predicts that, "Snow lovers should be very excited."* I would love to believe that the Almanac is at least as accurate as the wooly bear caterpillar; and here's the thing, I believe in science (I really do); but science is hard to understand. For example, I searched NOAA's online winter forecast** and I couldn't even find mention of Vermont, just a bunch of maps with one showing "E.C' for New England. My take away for my effort is that NOAA believes that temperatures will be higher than normal this winter with New England being in the equal chances zone.  E.C. means that odds of average, above average, or below average precipitation is about the same. I'm sure that all those other maps somehow come into play; but I'll be darned if I know how.  Can we conclude that Lily pond has an equal chance to recover as to not?

The pond has always recovered in the past so why should this time be any different? When do the old timers run out of memories of the year the pond was dryer? What if Lily pond's drying up is the "new normal?" What if something has been changing and our pond is trying to tell us? What if there were something that we could do to tip the scales in the pond's (and the wildlife that depends on it) favor? That's a lot of questions!

My mother in law Janice, always tells us that she was born in the hurricane of 1938. The Great New England Hurricane of 82 years ago has been described as a once in a lifetime storm. This year, the news has been filled with on par extreme regional events. We have become familiar with and better at predicting and dealing with monster events and because of it, countless lives have been spared. The events are piling up however, not only directly impacting the lives in the path of the events; but also the financial stability of our nation. Death Valley experienced the highest recorded temperature on earth. L.A. reached 120 degrees.  Four percent of California has burned (it was so hot that rain dried up before it hit the ground) and the southern US has been hit by twice the number of storms than in a typical season.*** 

Rachel Carson National Wildlife Refuge (ME), Biologists have noted that with tidal waters rising in salt marshes, Salt Marsh Sparrow's (a species of concern) nests are being flooded further endangering their chances for survival. These birds are indicators as to the health of the marshes. Why is this important? Coastal salt water marshes are defenders against storm events.**** Imagine if a hurricane like the one in 1938 comes ashore again; but this time saltwater marshes, barrier islands, and other natural defenses have been weakened do to rising sea levels and development. 

In 1988 NASA scientists James Hansen's paper on carbon and climate, stated accurately to the year, the fire, drought, heat, and hurricane events of 2020. I remember when there was considerable debate among scientists whether or not Global Warming / Climate Change was happening and if  human activities were causing it. In 2020 scientists have reached a consensus on Climate Change, it's real, it's getting late and there is still time to reverse it. Geophysicist Michael Mann in a 60 Minutes interview  was asked if this is the new normal, he replied, "New normal is the best case scenario..."*** He also explained that the planet naturally should have cooled over the last half century; but has instead increased a little less than two degrees Fahrenheit. This interview is a must watch as it explains to regular people like you and me, the science in easy to understand language. 

Michael Mann confirms that "Warming can be stopped. Oceans and forests would begin to absorb excess carbon in a matter of years...It becomes too late if you get to the point that you cannot stop the ice sheet disintegration" ***

I believe in paying close attention to scientists and to the long timers, one tells us what is happening and the other puts it in a context of human experience.-Norma Manning

Resources:

* The Old Farmer's Almanac, Winter of 2021

** NOAA'S 2020-2021 Winter Forecast 

*** The Climate Science Behind This Year's Wildfires and Powerful Storms, 60 Minutes

**** Live From the Marsh With Salt Marsh Sparrow, Rachel Carson National Wildlife Refuge

                                                         A barefoot print in Lily Pond 

          

                 Taken about 3 feet in from the Oct. water level looking towards the canoe launch

                                                    Looking south near the low water mark

                                                               Overview looking south

                                    Near the north end of the pond looking along the west bank